Monday, February 16, 2015

The Danger of Making Deadline Headlines

With the Montreal Canadiens lording over the Eastern Conference from their precarious perch atop the standings, the pre-deadline frenzy has arrived right on schedule.

First the talks of Evander Kane, then reports of Eller and Emelin on the block and most recently the speculation surrounding Patrick Sharp. All of this set against an expansive backdrop of Jaromir Jagr rumours. It should be plainly clear that the Canadiens are buyers heading into this market, but Marc Bergevin has already alluded to being cautious when shopping the trade market.

On the surface this may seem like typical Montreal Canadiens posturing; preparing rumour-ravenous fans for the disappointment of inactivity. In reality, Canadiens fans should be ecstatic that their team's general manager is moving with calculated trepidation. Some may think the Canadiens would be fools not to throw every resource toward winning today. After all, their stars are playing like stars, beginning with the all-world performance of Carey Price. But as we all know, goaltenders are a volatile commodity. There is no guarantee Price will ever find himself on such an incredible plain as he is in 2015. For many, the time to act is now!

This is a shortsighted view. What often gets lost in the success of the current season, is the fact the the Montreal Canadiens are in the midst of a rebuild. Marc Bergevin was hired less than 3 years ago and began his rebuild of the Canadiens with the selection of Alex Galchenyuk. This past Thursday marked Galchenyuk's 21st birthday, at which point and he already had 177 NHL games under his belt, including 10 in the playoffs. The core talent of this team is aged 27 and under. The Habs have 21 year-olds on the power play and 19 year-olds killing penalties. Don't let their record fool you - the Canadiens are still very much a young team on the way up.

The point to all of this, is that the Canadiens should not mortgage the future for the sake of a shot at a Cup run now. The team is young, there are good prospects on the way (see: Scherbak, Nikita) and the cap management has been stellar. This is not to say Bergevin shouldn't look for an upgrade, only that this certainly shouldn't be an 'all-in' situation. Few teams have the luxury of contending while in the midst of a rebuild. This is as 'win-win' as situations get. The team is good enough to contend for the Cup. If they don't win it, they will have gained valuable experience for next year's run, which should be with an even stronger squad.

Last year, Bergevin acted 100% appropriately. He brought in a rental to bolster for the playoffs, without upsetting the team's future. He gave away a 2nd round pick along with undersized prospect Sebastian Collberg - a player whose type the Habs have in spades.

Unfortunately, Vanek's tenure only ended up demonstrating the prevailing fact that rental players are gambles. It is not often that an impact player gels with new teammates in time to become part of the core that got that team to the dance in the first place. There is perhaps no greater example of this than the 2013 deadline deal that brought Jarome Iginla to the Pittsburgh Penguins. This highly-celebrated transaction created a Pittsburgh Penguins team that, on paper, from Corsi to Fenwick and beyond - would be an unstoppable offensive juggernaut. Coupled with the individual pedigrees of the superstars on their lineup, was the assuredness of chemistry between Crosby and Iginla; given their experience together in the Olympics. For those who can't remember how that chapter closed, it was with a sweep at the hands of the Boston Bruins, that saw the powerhouse Penguins produce only 2 goals through 4 games.

This is hockey. There are no guarantees. Moves that look good on paper don't always pan out on the ice. Right now the Canadiens should be wary about selling too much of the property they own, in order to finance a gamble on a short term rental.

Bergevin has shown a bit of shrewd mastery with the moves he's made and it should be remembered that as important as the moves that are made are the moves that aren't. Bergevin has shown that he is certainly not afraid to shake things up. This is the same man who dismantled his leadership core following an unexpected run to the Conference Final - and somehow managed to make the team better. Canadiens fans only need to hope, heading into the March 2nd trade deadline, that Marc Bergevin isn't afraid to not make a move.

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